We created a public subgraph for to help review historical Cheeze Wizards data. The beloved milk-made magicians in Dapper Lab's newest game cast wind, water, and fire spells. Any player will be reminded of Rock Paper Scissors (RPS).

Game theory dictates random plays to never lose at RPS and Cheeze Wizards. However, random is unlikely to be the optimal or most fun play. Like many games that appear simple, human psychology presents itself as a complicating component.

Human beings tend to take very similar decisions based on previous experiences. We tend to have patterns and we tend to stick to what we think works for us. This really is applicable to Cheeze Wizards, where there is a rich history of past duels to review.

1. Expect repetition

Based on a study by Dr. Neil Farber, winning RPS players tend to stick with the same action that led to their success. If someone just won with a certain combination of moves, there is a good change that the player will use the same or similar combination in the next battle.

Apply this principle in your next duel using these queries:

2. Know the stats.

The most common throw in RPS is rock (35 percent), scissors (35 percent), and then paper (30 percent). On Cheeze Wizards, it's closer but not completely balanced: Fire (32.7%), Water (34.4%) and Wind (32.9%).

Not sure what to do next? Picking Wind may give you a very slight advantage (67.3% chance of draw or win).

Spell Types by Wizard Affinities

Neutral Wizard Fire Wizard Water Wizard Wind Wizard
Fire spells 33.4% 32.4% 33.2% 30.1%
Water spells 33.8% 32.3% 36.4% 37%
Wind spells 32.8% 35.4% 30.5% 32.9%

Can I win by just following this strategy?

Every advantage helps. There are other considerations to make within the duels themselves:

  • Wizard affinities
  • Later move rounds being higher stakes
  • Chance of being knocked out in one battle by losing all 5 rounds

You may find some advantages outside the duels: specifically who you challenge and which challenges you accept.